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GTA High-Rise Land Market: Key Insights from Q4-2024

Writer's picture: ROSS TALIBOVROSS TALIBOV

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) high-rise land market remained stable in 2024, but significant shifts in pricing, land sizes, and market trends have reshaped the development landscape. The latest Q4-2024 GTA High-Rise Land Insights Report, published in February 2025, highlights crucial market developments, pricing fluctuations, and investment strategies that are defining the future of high-density land acquisition in the region.


Flat Pricing Amid Changing Market Conditions



Average Price and Average Price Per-Buildable-SF for High-Density Land by Year, GTA, 2018 to 2024.
Average Price and Average Price Per-Buildable-SF for High-Density Land by Year, GTA, 2018 to 2024. Courtesy of Bullpen Consulting

According to the report, the average price per buildable square foot (pbsf) for high-density land in the GTA remained steady at $93 pbsf, unchanged from 2023. However, the total transaction price saw a sharp decline, dropping 36% year-over-year from $21.9 million in 2023 to $14.1 million in 2024. This drop is attributed to a shift towards smaller property acquisitions, as developers favor manageable sites in response to changing market absorption rates.


Declining Investor Confidence and Land-to-Revenue Ratios


Developers and investors have become increasingly cautious due to weak pre-construction sales, stagnant rental rates, and rising borrowing costs. The Land-to-Revenue Ratio (LRR), which measures how much developers pay for land relative to revenue from new condo sales, increased to 7.5% in 2024, up from 6.8% in 2023. In the 905 Area, LRR fell to a record low of 4.4%, while in the 416 Area, it increased to 8.6%, reflecting the challenges of urban development costs.


Shift Towards Smaller, More Flexible Developments


A key trend emerging from 2024 is the preference for smaller development sites that align with current market realities. Developers are pivoting towards mid-sized rental projects and end-user-friendly condos, moving away from investor-driven micro-units. The average land parcel size increased to 1.21 acres, but the median lot size fell to just 0.45 acres, the smallest in seven years. This shift reflects capital constraints and the growing focus on right-sized projects that are easier to finance and absorb into the market.


Municipal Approval Trends and Future Supply Concerns


One of the more positive aspects of the report is the faster approval timelines in many GTA municipalities. Cities are granting higher densities at a record pace, leading to an increase in permitted Gross Floor Area (GFA). However, despite increased approvals, developers are hesitant to acquire land, leading to a significant 50% decline in proposed high-rise unit counts compared to 2022. This slowdown in acquisitions could lead to an undersupply of new housing by 2027, once current inventory is completed and absorbed.


Rental Market and New Development Strategies


With affordability concerns continuing to mount, rental developers are adjusting their strategies to cater to long-term renters. Developers are reducing parking requirements, rethinking amenities, and designing larger, more livable units to attract downsizers and affluent renters. Locations along new transit corridors like Finch West, the Golden Mile, and Corktown-Leslieville are seeing increased developer interest for rental-focused projects.


Distressed Sales and Developer Financing Challenges


Despite the market's overall stability, distressed sales remain rare, with only two of 18 high-density land transactions in Q4-2024 classified as such. However, publicly listed development sites are receiving fewer offers as sellers refuse to adjust pricing expectations. Many lenders are opting to hold onto distressed assets rather than take immediate losses, anticipating that land values will rebound in the coming years.


Looking Ahead: A Market Recalibration in 2025


The outlook for 2025 remains mixed. While land pricing is expected to remain stable, new home sales are projected to weaken further, prompting a continued correction in high-rise development valuations. However, lower construction costs, municipal fee reductions, and eventual interest rate cuts could pave the way for a market rebound in late 2025 or 2026.


At Tal Group, we remain committed to tracking these evolving trends and leveraging strategic insights to navigate the shifting GTA high-rise land market. Whether you’re a developer, investor, or landowner, understanding these key metrics and market shifts will be crucial in making informed decisions for the future.


Data and insights referenced in this article are sourced from the Q4-2024 GTA High-Rise Land Insights Report, published by Bullpen Research & Consulting and Batory Management in February 2025.

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